Intro

As my miserable fantasy football teams wrap up their forgettable seasons, I can’t help but begin to think about the true king, fantasy baseball. The complexity of it is unrivaled, it truly feels like you’re the GM of a team, especially if you’re playing in a dynasty league. I created a simple R script using Fangraphs Steamer Projections to rank the top fantasy pitchers for the 2024 season. Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. As of December 31st, Steamer is the only Fangraphs projection system that has released 2024 data, and the code can easily be tweaked to calculate projected fantasy points for other projection models when released as well as adjust point values for custom scoring leagues (currently on traditional ESPN scoring).

1. Spencer Strider (498)

Strider is the clearcut #1 pitcher in all fantasy formats and is considered to be the best pitcher in baseball by many (including myself). Strider possesses a unicorn Four-seamer and has no problem throwing it at a league leading 58.9% clip (min 3000 pitches). He also led all qualified starters with a 38.7 total Whiff%, and therefore piled up 281 strikeouts leading the second place finisher, and #2 on this list by 44. Strikeouts are a critical aspect of fantasy pitcher production as they typically provide an extra point over a traditional out, and can hedge blowup starts. Strider's ERA ticked up towards the end of the season which negatively affected his total fantasy production, but I don’t see that as much of a concern. The mix of above average location combined with electric stuff is unbeatable, and leaves a sizable gap between Strider and any other pitcher in the league. I believe Strider is undervalued in a lot of drafts even at the #1 pitcher spot.

2. Kevin Gausman (440)

Blue Jays starters stepped up in a big way as former ace of the staff Alek Manoah struggled, and right-hander Gausman led the charge. Gausman's Four-seamer was the best it’s been in his career (worth 16 runs) and his Splitter remained dominant low and away against lefties. The Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays home field underwent renovations during the 2022-2023 offseason which seemed to have impacted the park factor (image below). A Blue Jays team that is known for their offense and placed second in the league in wRC+ in 2022 (118) fell to eighth (107) in 2023, a year where leaguewide offensive production was up. Jays pitchers ranked fifth in fWAR in 2023 (18.6) as opposed to 11th in 2022 (16.7). Aside from the ballpark changing, the Blue Jays acquired two of the three top defensive outfielders in Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, both which have the ability to change games with their defensive ability. It will certainly be interesting to monitor the Blue Jays situation defensively as well as how the Rogers Centre plays in 2024.

3. Gerrit Cole (439)

2023 AL Cy Young Gerrit Cole remains atop all leaderboards. Since 2021 Cole ranks #1 in strikeouts with 722 and #2 in innings pitched with 591 averaging just under 200 per season. Cole is an absolute workhorse and safe selection to be your fantasy ace.

4. Pablo Lopez (423)

5. Zach Wheeler (415)

Wheeler led all pitchers in fWAR during 2023 with 5.9, and seemingly underperformed his ERA. His FIP, xFIP, xERA, and SIERA were all lower than his ERA while throwing 192 innings. When multiple stats line up like that it is typically a great sign, and should reflect positively in the future. Wheeler is on a contract year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the NL Cy Young race in 2024.

6. Corbin Burnes (410)

7. Framber Valdez (407)

8. Luis Castillo (404)

9. Aaron Nola (403)

10. Tarik Skubal (395)

Tarik Skubal is by far the most interesting name on this list. The Detroit left-hander rapidly climbed rankings as he consistently looked like one of, if not, the best pitcher in baseball since returning from flexor tendon surgery in July. In 2022 Skubal began to show promise, he posted a 3.52 ERA in 117.2 innings and by simply looking at his Fangraphs Page you can see he cut his HR/FB% significantly while yielding a ton more ground balls. At this point he looked like a low-end two/high-end three starter in a rotation with the ability to limit contact, and would hold a backend fantasy pitcher spot/bench spot. Returning from injury in 2023, Skubal transformed into a completely different player. He was no longer a pitch to contact guy, but a completely fresh power arm. He tweaked his arsenal and began throwing more Four-seam fastballs averaging 95.8 opposed to 94.2 in 2022. His K/9 jumped from a dull 8.95% to 11.43% ranking him 7th in the MLB on a list of 172 pitchers with at least 80 innings just behind big K names such as Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Kevin Gausman (8.95% would be 63rd on the list). Aside from bumping his overall Four-seam usage, Skubal opted to stick with predominantly his Sinker Slider (85% combined usage) combo for left-handed hitters and while he bumped up his Changeup and Four-seam usages 10% each versus right-handed hitters. I think the big thing to highlight here is his velocity spike, a 1.6 mph difference may not seem like a lot, but it is, especially if you can run both of your fastballs up to 99 with a refined arsenal. Below are Skubal's Baseball Savant pages from 2022 and 2023, hard to believe they are the same player. Again, Skubal only threw 80 innings in 2023 but during his time on the mound he looked like one of the sharpest pitchers in the game. His success was legitimate, he posted a league leading 2.00 FIP (min 80IP) while FIP is more indicative of future performance than ERA, Skubal technically underperformed his peripherals. It is easy to understand why Steamer is so high on Skubal, all things point in the right direction and I wouldn’t be hesitant to treat him as a top 15 pitcher in fantasy. At 27 years old Skubal is approaching prime years while pitching in a friendly ballpark and will be a great arm for years to come.

11. George Kirby (393)

12. Zac Gallen (386)

13. Kodai Senga (385)

14. Blake Snell (383)

15. Logan Webb (380)

T16. Zach Eflin (378)

T16. Jesus Luzardo (378)

18. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (376)

T19. Max Fried (371)

Max Fried is a must roster for me in 2024. Fried has quietly been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball since 2020 with a 2.66 ERA in 484.2 innings. Although he missed time in 2023, he was elite in his 77.2 innings on the bump raising his K/9 one full point as well as adding a touch on his Fastball and showcasing a Sweeper. There’s nothing NOT to like about Fried, he consistently posts good FIPs year after year and I feel he is a safe pick with the potential to be the top left-hander in baseball. Fried has proved his ability to pitch on the biggest stage and may just pitch himself into a $200,000,000+ deal this offseason.

T19.) Carlos Rodon (371)

I don’t think we should overlook Carlos Rodon just yet. Rodon was set back due to a forearm strain at the beginning of the season and battled back stiffness throughout. In a year where he posted a 6.85 ERA in 64.1 innings, his pure stuff wasn’t too different than his dominant 2022 that earned him his $162,000,000 contract (111 2023 Stuff+ vs 114 2022 Stuff+). On the other hand Rodon did in fact struggle with command, and his Command+ fell from 103 to 97 (where 100 is average). There’s no doubt in my mind Rodon still has potential to reestablish himself as a frontline starter and a fantasy ace.

21.) Tyler Glasnow (369)

22.) Freddy Peralta (368)

T23.) Logan Gilbert (367)

T23.) Joe Ryan (367)

Coming off a winter where he refined his offspeed at Driveline, Joe Ryan remains a great option for a mid round pick in most leagues. Ryan began the year looking like one of the top pitchers in the American League, but hit a rough patch in June/July. He later claimed he was battling a groin injury at the time and finished the season with an uninspiring 4.51 ERA. Ryan’s uniquely low release slot and VAA allows him to miss barrels with his Four-seamer despite having average velocity. Ryan is certainly on my radar for the second straight season and I believe he provides good value.

25.) Shane Bieber (353)

Dynasty Thoughts

Dynasty is a whole different game than a one year league. There’s a lot of factors that go into rankings such as how much your league values prospects, roster sizes, and scoring among other things. You can see the entire top 75 2024 rankings in the table below as well as some dynasty rankings I fabricated combining 2024 Steamer Projections and player age (hence why the table does not include Ohtani or Degrom). Players like Pablo Lopez and George Kirby received a healthy bump in the dynasty rankings rightfully so, they’ve proven to be top performers at a young age. It can never hurt to stash a younger arm or two on your bench. Kyle Harrison, Shane Baz, or someone who is a little further out like Hurston Waldrep are all good options in my opinion.